Politics 101

[May 24th, 2006] Before the results of last week's election get spun completely into unreality by candidates and interest groups, here's WW's scorecard of what new lessons emerged, what old lessons were taught again, and what to watch for in the months leading up to the November election.

We learned for the first time that...

* Labor unions , a dominant force in previous elections, look in disarray. They wasted some credibility and hundreds of thousands of dollars backing long shot Jim Hill in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. And they failed in local races to do much for several candidates with strong union ties: Longtime AFSCME lobbyist Mary Botkin finished a distant third in the Democratic primary in House District 46; former Multnomah County commissioner and current state Rep. Gary Hansen, a union plumber, placed third in a bid to rejoin the county commission; and City Council candidate Amanda Fritz should have benefited from strong labor antipathy toward incumbent Commish Dan Saltzman. But Fritz tanked, despite getting virtually every labor endorsement.

* Disgraced D.C. lobbyist Jack Abramoff isn't the only force who can impel Indians to spend millions. Up until this year, no tribe in Oregon has ever doled out six- or even seven-figure sums at the political craps table. But the Confederated Tribes of the Grand Ronde , which opposes the proposed Warm Springs tribal casino in the Columbia Gorge, spent nearly $1 million in the primary and appears ready to up the ante significantly in the general election—which bodes ill for Gov. Ted Kulongoski, who supports the Warm Springs move.

* Nike can't buy an election in Beaverton. Despite Big Swoosh and its boss Phil Knight pouring an unheard-of $25,000-plus into the City Council candidacy of political neophyte Bob Burke, Burke still failed to unseat Councilor Betty Bode. The incumbent got 59 percent of the vote in a rare win for Beaverton's powers that be in that 'burb's battle with Nike over annexation. "I think they overreached," Beaverton Mayor Rob Drake says of Nike. "I would just ask at what point they're going to bury the hatchet."

* For all the hype given "new media," bloggers still lack the clout to turn state elections. The large and vocal Jason Atkinson for Governor Blog Network couldn't win the race for the Republican state lawmaker, who ranked a distant third in the GOP primary, with 19 percent.

* A write-in candidate spurred by WW can get out the vote. Paul Van Orden wore a red and yellow Moots jersey nearly every day during his monthlong campaign to challenge Multnomah County Sheriff Bernie Giusto. After winning an estimated 10,500 scrawled-in votes, far more than any local write-in candidate in memory, Van Orden has retired his stinky zip-up. But he hasn't given up, saying he plans to stay on Giusto's tail, keeping a bloggy update about the sheriff on his website, newsheriffpdx.com.

We learned yet again that...

* The Oregonian editorial board continues to misjudge Portland's weirdness threshold with its latest failed jihad against City Commissioner Erik Sten. In its support of Sten opponent Ginny Burdick, who captured 27 percent of the vote, the paper editorialized that she would help to keep Portland "Just Weird Enough."

But Sten, who landed in the O's cross hairs for leading the city's unsuccessful effort to buy PGE and its successful plan to publicly finance City Hall candidates, ended up winning the primary with a mandate best summed up by the late Dr. Hunter S. Thompson: "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."

* Former Secretary of State Phil Keisling's vote-by-mail program continues to fail its most basic test. Turnout last week dropped 8 percentage points from 2002, when Oregon had its last non-presidential primary.

* Name recognition means a lot when voters don't know much else. In the hotly contested race for an open Oregon Supreme Court judgeship, Pendleton trial lawyer Gene Hallman finished third despite substantial backing from his Oregon State Bar brethren and the distinction of being from outside the Willamette Valley.

Virginia Linder, a state court of appeals judge, made it into the November runoff but placed second in the May 16 primary despite enjoying the enormous advantage of being able to point out that no women now sit on the state Supreme Court. Then there was first-place Jack Roberts, who wasn't even a bar member when the race began and hadn't practiced law since 1989. So what does Roberts have that Linder doesn't? The benefit of winning statewide races twice before (to the otherwise obscure office of commissioner of the Bureau of Labor and Industries) and sharing the same last name as multiple Oregon election successes, from former BOLI chief Mary Wendy Roberts to ex-Gov. Barbara Roberts.

* Tim Nashif of the Oregon Family Council is a man everybody should take seriously. Nashif, who led the Measure 36 effort in 2004 to outlaw same-sex marriage, delivered the goods this year for Republican gubernatorial nominee Ron Saxton. Just after ballots went out, it looked like GOP rival Kevin Mannix might make up ground by playing the abortion card as he did in the waning days of the 2002 gubernatorial primary (Mannix is pro-life, Saxton at least nominally pro-choice). But in a May 3 Oregonian story about abortion, Nashif said he was voting for Saxton because the Portland lawyer "has the best chance to win in the fall." Nashif, the owner of a Portland printing company, followed that statement up with a voicemail to 160,000 Republican households around the state extolling Saxton's virtues—and helping him to a surprisingly easy victory.

And we're watching out for...

* City Council candidate Emilie Boyles, who drew only 5 percent of the vote and faces a May 31 hearing into how she spent her taxpayer-financed campaign money. Boyles posted a vaguely menacing post-election screed on her website (www.emilieboyles.com/) promising to stay on top of all those who done her wrong.

* Kulongoski to attempt a rescue of his wobbly re-election by getting former AFL-CIO boss Tim Nesbitt off his sabbatical and on to his campaign. A brilliant campaign strategist who also commands great loyalty in the labor movement, Nesbitt could bring some much-needed direction and discipline to the guv's team.

* Saxton's debt to the right wing of his party—specifically, Nashif and the timber barons who provided much of his funding. This is likely to prevent him from moderating his message as much as many pundits predict.

* Independent gubernatorial candidate Ben Westlund's chances to improve, if Saxton and Kulongoski continue the same mud wrestling that generated such a low voter turnout last week. Having staked out actual positions on healthcare, tax reform and education funding, Westlund now needs to build name recognition and stay above the fray.