The Whether Report

[November 12th, 2008]

Spring showers yield November flowers

Anybody remember John Frohnmayer ? The Oregon State University prof jumped into the U.S. Senate race in 2007 as an Independent. Following the May 2008 primary, Frohnmayer’s household name (brother Dave is a former state attorney general and the current president of the University of Oregon) and his antiwar stance threatened to siphon votes from Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley’s bid to unseat incumbent Republican Gordon Smith.

But Frohnmayer abruptly quit the race just three weeks after the primary. Two weeks later, Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow jumped in. Brownlow got 88,000 votes—about 35,000 more than Merkley’s victory margin. “Frohnmayer had a real potential to be a spoiler for Merkley,” says Portland pollster Mike Riley. “But when you look at Brownlow’s numbers, most of them came from likely Smith voters.”

Surprise tornado

So, did Dave Brownlow swing the election? The answer depends on who’s talking.

“I’m pretty confident if I wasn’t in the race Gordon Smith would have won,” Brownlow says.

Brownlow conducted no polling and spent less than $2,000 on his campaign. His platform included the immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, outlawing abortion, and ending “judicial tyranny.” Brownlow suspects many of his supporters were disaffected Republicans unwilling to vote for Smith, and Oregonians who probably wouldn’t have voted at all had there not been a third-party candidate.

Merkley’s campaign manager disagrees: Jon Isaacs says Merkley’s polling days before the election showed Brownlow was drawing support from Democrats and Republicans as well as unaffiliated and third-party voters. The Brownlow campaign may have drawn even more Democratic votes when Smith’s campaign tried in late TV ads and mailers to brand Brownlow as a “liberal.” Republicans were “trying to drive votes to” Brownlow, Isaacs says.

Mostly cloudy

Speculation about who will succeed term-limited Gov. Ted Kulongoski in 2010 includes the names of virtually every sentient Oregonian. Those known to be—or wished by party insiders to be—considering a run: Democrats Bill Bradbury (the term-limited secretary of state), former Gov. John Kitzhaber, U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Springfield), Senate President Peter Courtney (D-Salem) and Portland activist Steve Novick. On the Republican side: lame-duck Sen. Gordon Smith, U.S. Rep. Greg Walden (R-Hood River), state Sen. Jason Atkinson (R-Central Point), and rising star Allen Alley, a surprisingly close runner-up in the state treasurer’s race. Alley has not decided what’s next, but says, “I really enjoyed running and won’t rule out doing it again.”

Surviving the storm

Despite being outspent nearly 3-to-1, despite having pleaded guilty to misdemeanor assault of his 7-year-old son with a screwdriver (the conviction was later expunged), and despite having the boy’s mother dispute his account just weeks before ballots went out, Republican Matt Wingard beat Democrat Jessica Adamson in House District 26 (Wilsonville and Sherwood). “The nature of the campaign against Wingard became an issue in that district,” says Jim Moore, a Pacific University political science professor. “The strategy backfired.”

Heavy rain

Former Secretary of State Phil Keisling really believes in the open-primary concept—enough to have spent $467,000 in an unsuccessful attempt to get it on the ballot two years ago and another $700,000 when it made it to the ballot this year as Measure 65. Here’s what Keisling’s website said about the popularity of his idea: “An overwhelming majority of Oregonians (74 percent) from across all demographics wants an Open Primary system.” So how’d the vote go? Measure 65 drew only 34 percent support, the worst performance of any of the 12 measures on the ballot. Keisling says he was surprised by the defeat, which he blames on a “confusing” ballot title and an inability to communicate with voters.

Violent winds ahead

At a time when the state’s 2009-2011 budget is $524 million underwater and sinking fast, organized labor spent more than $15 million to defeat several potentially budget-busting ballot measures written by Bill Sizemore and Kevin Mannix. Corporate Oregon’s contribution to the fight? Less than $250,000. Part of the issue was a sharp disagreement over Keisling’s unrelated proposal—Measure 65, which corporate donors supported and unions hated.

Misleading mail pieces from the Oregon Education Association on 65 slamming Keisling’s backers and “greedy CEOs” dammed the flow of corporate money against the other measures written by Sizemore and Mannix. Ryan Deckert, director of the Oregon Business Association, says the discrepancy in spending reflected whose interests were more directly threatened. “Corporate interests were not on the front line, except [with] Measure 59,” a Sizemore-written billion-dollar tax cut, Deckert says. “That would have affected all of us.”

Says Defend Oregon Director Kevin Looper: “[65] never had a chance, but its adherents somehow convinced people it was more important than measures that would have decimated schools, public services and safety.”

Unexpected sunshine

Did Portland Public Schools make a mistake by skipping the chance to ask voters for construction money? Less than one year ago, PPS was quickly moving ahead with a plan to renovate or rebuild some of its 90-odd school buildings. And as part of that plan, the Portland School Board planned to ask voters to approve a bond issue for new construction Nov. 4. Estimated price tag: $1 billion.

Then board members realized two things. They weren’t far enough along in their discussions about what to do with the district’s 10 high schools. And they might be better off focusing their energy on Measure 56, which would loosen Oregon’s “double majority” rule that made it harder for public agencies to pass tax initiatives. The School Board decided not to go for a bond measure. And when the economy tanked, the board looked wise.

But wait! Despite the nation’s economic downturn, Portland voters agreed to raise their property taxes for an Oregon Zoo bond issue, a renewal of the Children’s Investment Fund, and new construction projects at Portland Community College.

“I still think it was the right call,” says School Board member David Wynde. At least state voters eased up the “double majority” rule by approving Measure 56.

Cooler-than-expected temperatures

Obamania didn’t sweep Oregon voters to quite the degree it did our West Coast neighbors. Yes, Barack Obama won here with 57 percent of the vote. But Obama got 58 percent in Washington, and 61 percent in California.

Hurricane aftermath 

Sen. Gordon Smith called WW’s cover story “Señor Smith” (an investigation of his family business’s hiring of illegal immigrants) “false.” He also called it a “hit-piece hatchet-job slimeball.” Other media were reluctant to follow up.

But on Oct. 17, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee began airing TV and radio ads highlighting WW’s reporting and characterizing Smith’s actions as hypocritical and untrustworthy. Matthew Miller, a spokesman for the DSCC, called the ads an “important part” of the overall ad campaign to defeat Smith.

Localized trickle-down precipitation:

Think it’s easy taking out a two-term incumbent U.S. senator? A TV ad for Jeff Merkley featuring Barack Obama was the only such localized spot the president-elect made. And the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spent more here—$12.4 million—than in any other race this year. Perhaps the greatest illustration of how much help Merkley needed came in Washington County: Obama beat John McCain in Oregon’s second-largest county by 22.5 percentage points, but Merkley beat Smith by only 2.6 points. “I think that might be because Washington County voters are more business-savvy and attuned to trade,” pollster Mike Riley says. “Smith’s been pretty good on those issues.”

Eye on the storm

One 82-year-old Oregonian went well beyond the efforts of many political volunteers to ensure a just election for voters in a battleground state. Don Willner, a former Democratic state senator and candidate for attorney general, flew to New Mexico six days before the election on his own dime to help voters with legal issues that might arise while voting.

Willner, a lawyer, spent his time in Albuquerque with the nonpartisan volunteer group Common Cause, giving legal advice on absentee ballots, voter problems with identification, and voter intimidation. Willner says the trip was well worth the week and $1,500 he spent.

“This was one of the most important elections of my life,” Willner says. “I knew I wanted to help use my abilities in a battleground state, and in New Mexico there were a number of new and minority voters.”