NBA Playoff Preview, Round 1: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Welcome to the Infirmary Series! May the least injured team win!

Good afternoon! The Portland Trail Blazers, Portland's second most popular basketball team (behind Stephen Malkmus's Portland Parks and Rec Squad, "The Trigger Cuts") are IN THE NBA PLAYOFFS! If you are a fan of this team, I say to you: CONGRATULATIONS! Here is a Blazers-themed cake for you to celebrate with!

Unless you have been living in a hole watching basketball and doing almost nothing else, you probably have some questions about the series. I have been in that hole, smeared in filth, my body and soul decomposing in the glow of a warm television, and I have some answers to the questions you seek.

WHO ARE THE BLAZERS PLAYING AND WHEN AND HOW CAN I WATCH!?

The Trail Blazers will be locked in basketball competition with the Memphis Grizzlies! Here is their schedule: 

Every first round game will also be broadcast through the air you breathe on KGW!

I ONLY WATCH THE PLAYOFFS. IS THERE SOMETHING DIFFERENT ABOUT THE BLAZERS THIS YEAR?

Yes. Steve Blake and Chris Kaman are backups now. Arron Afflalo is currently the team's starting shooting guard. The Blazers traded for Afflalo at the trade deadline to shore up their crummy wing depth. But the team was struck by "Kitzhaber's Curse" when the State of Oregon persecuted a great man who only did the things he did because he was in love, and Wes Matthews tore his Achilles tendon. Afflalo is good, but his skill set doesn't fit with the Blazers nearly as much as Wes' did—less running around screens and getting open, more making shot attempts with the ball in his hand.

Also, do you remember Meyers Leonard? The big human who moved to funny places on the floor funnily? He is a three-point specialist now. The NBA is a magical place.

AND WHO ARE THE MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES, EXACTLY?

About, oh, 10 years ago, prompted by the end of hand-checking and the legalization of zone defense, NBA offenses began to irrevocably change. The league went away from isolation basketball, post-up big men, grinding bloodwars that were mostly unwatchable and went toward more three-point shooting, fast-break offense, ball-movement-motion and/or pick-and-roll type offensive schemes. You see this kind of offense with the recent Trail Blazers, who run Terry Stotts' Princeton-derived flow offense, which spaces out the wings and guards behind the three-point line and creates open shots using ball movement and light pick-and-rolls.

The Memphis Grizzlies are the Last Bear Standing using the vintage '90s strategy, a group of pirate-y weirdoes who still think it's totally reasonable to run the offense through the posts and field a starting small forward who absolutely cannot shoot. 

Their best player is center Marc Gasol, a gigantic human being with miracle-working hands. Watch for his high-post passes to cutters that vaguely resemble paper flowers and his patented foul-line set-shot which is like nothing else in the league. He will also probably do some work in the post, utilizing a gigantic, loopy crane of a hook shot. Blazers center Robin Lopez is an excellent defender on pick-and-rolls and in space, but he can get pushed around in the post.

The Grizzlies start Courtney Lee and Tony Allen on the wings. Lee is a streaky "3-and-D" wing. He will have an NBA job until time breaks his body. Allen is one of a kind. If you get a chance to attend one of these games in the lower bowl, let your eyes spend some time watching Tony. He never stops moving, yelling or waving a towel on the bench. He is a man with an aura, and the beating heart of the Grizzlies' "grit and grind" identity. Also, he is bad at offense. Well, that's not totally fair. He has some real gifts as a cutter to the basket, and he will occasionally uncork a dribble drive that makes no sense yet makes perfect sense simultaneously. He is very bad at shooting, though.

But Tony more than makes up for it on the defensive end. He is a synecdoche for the team in this way. Their old-school approach to offense doesn't blow anyone away: They had the 13th-best offense in the league this year—middle of the pack. But that's good enough when you're playing the league's third-best defense on a night-to-night basis. 

Gasol is a former Defensive Player of the Year, a heady, fleet-footed defender and giant human being who is equally comfortable covering pick-and-rolls away from the basket and dropping back to the rim and contesting shots. Point guard Mike Conley and Allen (especially Allen) are two of the league's best pick-and-roll-defending perimeter players. They get it done by simply not allowing themselves to be screened, slipping under or through the pick and keeping with their cover as if getting around another human being is the easiest thing to do in the world. They are also thieves par excellence. Look for both of them to torment Damian Lillard when he tries to get free on picks.

Zach Randolph, he of the eventful early career in Portland, is the Grizzlies' power forward. His arrival on the team launched them into their current status as perennial playoff contenders. He likes to post up, and is often successful. But his real value is his magical hands. Z-Bo is a put-back artist. He grabs offensive boards with magnetic fingertips and pushes them in with nary a jump from his ankles. Conley is the sort of player who excels year after year but is never elected to an All-Star team. He takes threes, he drives a little, he creates a little, he defers a little, he defends a lot. 

Also on the Grizzlies: a weird, on-the-grind version of Vince Carter; Jeff Green, a human Rorschach blot (your opinion about him says more about you than him); Kosta Koufous, a backup center who is "pretty good"; Beno Udrih, a career backup point guard; and Nick Calathes, another career backup point guard who got tagged for taking HGH or something once. It didn't seem like it was on purpose. Remember, athletic teens who are reading this: Be careful around dietary supplements!

THAT IS A BUMMER ABOUT WES MATTHEWS. ARE THERE ANY OTHER INJURIES OF NOTE?

Allen and Conley have both been sitting out lately, but they both intend to play in Game 1. On the Blazers' end, Afflalo will also probably be sitting out the first game of the series with a shoulder injury and semi-frequent backup forward Dorell Wright is going to be out for the whole series with a hand explosion.

HEY, THE BLAZERS ARE A FOURTH SEED BUT THEY DON'T HAVE HOME COURT ADVANTAGE. WHAT'S UP WITH THAT!?

The Blazers won the Northwest Division crown, which entitles them to the fourth seed, but home-court advantage is determined by record, not seed, and the Grizzlies won four more games (55) than the Blazers (51). It is a weird, unnecessary rule, but it worked out for the Blazers this go-round. If the seeding was determined by record alone, the Blazers would have been the sixth seed and they would be playing the Clippers. Considering how close every non-Warriors team in the West was this year, I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing.  

HEY, JUST CURIOUS, THIS MIGHT NOT BE INDICATIVE OF ANYTHING, HOW DID THE BLAZERS PERFORM AGAINST THE GRIZZLIES THIS YEAR? 

0-4. Blazers lost 99-112 on Nov. 28; 98-102 on January 17; 92-98 on Feb. 22; 86-97 on March 21.

I AM NOT THRILLED WITH THAT ANSWER!

That is a rational way to feel. The Grizzlies' defense gnaws away at pace and space teams like the Blazers, and I do not have a world of comfort to offer you. The Grizzlies have regularly been beating the Blazers for several years. But two of the losses were close, and close victories are more attributable to luck than anything else. The Blazers will also have the opportunity to shorten their rotation and get more play out of their starters, who are significantly better than the team's bench players. The Grizzlies also have some injuries, but that is probably a push, considering Matthews and all. 

SO, REALISTICALLY, WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF THE BLAZERS WINNING THE SERIES?

The Grizzlies were a better team this year, they have home-court advantage and have beat on the Blazers in recent regular-season matchups, so it's hard, as a ethical basketball analyst, to say that I think the Blazers have an advantage in this matchup. 

Their best shot, besides a handful of game-to-game flukes, is probably if there is something severely wrong with Conley's health. The Grizzlies have a lot of trouble producing quality offense without Conley on the floor, and if he can't totally fulfill his responsibilities, the Grizzlies could be in trouble. 

I feel that this is an immensely cynical conclusion to come to, that the series will be decided mostly by injuries. I am sure grit and gumption and luck will also play a role. The Grizz have the lead in grit, the Blazers in gumption. Just watch; it will be fun no matter what. Basketball is fun. 

Corbin Smith is a contributor to the Blazers blog Portland Roundball Society. Follow his coverage of the Blazers' playoff run at wweek.com—for as long as it lasts.

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