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By this point, it’s a given that filmmaker (and ex-Portland Mavericks bat boy) Todd Field is going to be a huge deal this Oscar season. His long-awaited film TÁR has already won honors for star Cate Blanchett (who plays an embattled conductor), increasing the likelihood that his first movie since 2006′s Little Children will be a major event.
However, TÁR just got an even more important vote of confidence from Scott Feinberg, the influential writer who analyzes awards season for The Hollywood Reporter. In 2022′s first edition of the “Feinberg Forecast,” he gives Field’s film a significant edge, naming it a front-runner in three categories: Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actress (and a “major threat” in the Original Screenplay race).
Oscar predictions should usually be taken with a grain of salt (especially when you consider that Apple TV+’s humble Sundance hit CODA unexpectedly beat Netflix’s flashier The Power of the Dog last time). But Feinberg has already seen most of the films that are contenders (with the exception of a few buzzy end-of-the-year titles, including Guillermo del Toro’s Portland-made animated version of Pinocchio).
For Best Picture, Feinberg has TÁR facing a diverse field of films that includes the Daniels’ Everything Everywhere All at Once, Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis, and Joseph Kosinski’s Top Gun: Maverick. However, Field’s strongest opponent is likely to be Steven Spielberg, whose new film The Fabelmans recently won the Audience Award at the Toronto International Film Festival, a frequent harbinger of Oscar glory.
Based on Spielberg’s childhood, The Fabelmans is clearly inspired by recent Oscar winners like Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma and Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast (both of which also borrowed from their respective filmmakers’ biographies). However, TÁR’s Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 1 point higher than that of The Fabelmans, signaling slightly more enthusiastic support from reviewers.