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With a little more than a week before ballots are counted, a look at national money pouring into Oregon’s two congressional swing districts highlights a gamble Democrats took when they redrew the 5th Congressional District and created the new 6th District with very narrow voter registration advantages. (Democrats have about 25,000 more voters registered in both districts, an advantage of 4.8 percentage points in the 5th District and 5.5 points in the 6th.)
In the 5th District, which covers most of Clackamas, Deschutes and Linn counties, Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, a lawyer and city administrator from Terrebone, trounced seven-term incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader in the May primary, leaving the seat open.
In terms of direct contributions, McLeod-Skinner has raised significantly more than her Republican opponent, former Happy Valley Mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer: $3.18 million to $2.24 million, as of Oct. 19, according to federal filings compiled by the watchdog website Open Secrets.
But outside spending from other groups swings dramatically in Chavez-DeRemer’s favor: Open Secrets reports that such funding from national PACs (either for Chavez-DeRemer or against McLeod-Skinner) favored the Republican by $5.1 million as of Oct. 30.
The situation is reversed in the new 6th District, which covers most of Marion and parts of Washington, Yamhill and Polk counties.
There, Republican Mike Erickson, a Lake Oswego logistics executive, has directly raised $3.47 million (of which he self-funded $2.72 million), compared with $2.84 million by the Democratic nominee, Lake Oswego lawmaker Andrea Salinas. Outside spending runs in Salinas’ favor, however, with a net of $4.73 million spent on independent ads either in support of her or against Erickson.
Coming out of the primary, it might have appeared Salinas had the easier race because she’d built a strong legislative record in Salem and had staunch backing from a wide variety of Democratic groups, while Erickson had lost two previous legislative races and twice lost bids for the 5th Congressional District.
But rather than focusing resources on shoring up McLeod-Skinner’s race, Democrats have put more resources into the 6th District.
There are a couple of reasons for that: First, Republicans have gained strength this election cycle (the website 538 rates their chances of taking control of the House at 81%). Second, as Slate recently reported, one very deep-pocketed Democratic donor who made a splash in the May primary has ghosted Democrats in the general election.
That donor, Sam Bankman-Fried, a billionaire who co-founded the crypto-currency exchange FTX, poured money into the Protect Our Future PAC. That PAC spent $10 million in support of Carrick Flynn, a previously unknown Democratic candidate in Oregon’s 6th District. Bankman-Fried hinted he might spend up to $1 billion on elections before 2024, a prospect that convinced House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to throw money Flynn’s way as well.
But, Slate reports, Bankman-Fried, is a no-show for the general election so far and appears to be rethinking his commitment to political spending. That leaves national Democrats spending money in places where they expected Bankman-Fried would, including the 6th District.
“For Democratic groups facing a number of tightly contested races that could go either way, it must have felt like a twist of the knife,” Slate noted.
It certainly could feel that way for Salinas: Bankman-Fried’s PAC and other outside funders spent far more—in excess of $12 million—trying to defeat a Democrat (Salinas) in the primary than they have in the general election to defeat a Republican (Erickson).