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Nobody in state government produces a more closely watched body of work than the state economist—and now he’s gone without a peep from the state.
For the past 12 years, Mark McMullen has generated a quarterly revenue forecast, which tells the Legislature how much revenue to expect and how much it can spend.
When the state economist underestimates revenue by more than 2%, the excess gets returned to taxpayers in the form of “the kicker,” which used to be a check but is now a credit against future taxes.
No other state has a kicker. Lawmakers approved the unique mechanism in 1979, and voters enshrined it in the Oregon Constitution in 2000.
In 2021-23, the kicker ballooned to a record $5.62 billion, about three times the previous largest kicker. Democratic lawmakers, who run the show in Salem, hate the kicker, regularly railing against the return of tax dollars that could otherwise be spent on government programs.
The size of the kicker—and the difficulty of making a forecast within the required 2% margin of error—has caused grumbling in the Capitol.
Last December, Oregon Public Broadcasting quoted McMullen’s quip on the potential consequence of the kicker pulling so much money out of state coffers.
“Who knows?” OPB quoted McMullen as saying. “With a $5.6 billion kicker, there may be a chance that some heads have to roll.”
Which brings us to April 25, when the think tank Common Sense Institute Oregon announced McMullen as its newest hire “following his resignation from the governor’s office.”
That was a little awkward, since neither the governor’s office, nor the Department of Administrative Services, the agency that houses McMullen’s Office of Economic Analysis, had announced McMullen’s departure.
Gov. Tina Kotek’s office referred WW’s questions to DAS.
In response, the agency shared McMullen’s resignation letter, dated April 19. “After preparing 54 quarterly economic and revenue forecasts under four different governors, it is time for me to move on to a new challenge,” McMullen wrote. McMullen’s longtime deputy, Josh Lehner, will serve as interim state economist until DAS hires McMullen’s successor.
McMullen’s new employer bills itself as a “nonpartisan research organization dedicated to the protection and promotion of Oregon’s economy.” The organization got its start in Denver in 2010 and also operates in Arizona.
“Mark’s expertise and leadership will be invaluable assets to CSI Oregon as we continue our mission of promoting evidence-based policies that foster economic growth and prosperity for all Oregonians,” said Lynn Snodgrass, a former speaker of the Oregon House (R-Boring) and CSI Oregon board member. “We are thrilled to welcome him to our team.”