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The ranks of people experienced at predicting the revenues that Oregon’s byzantine tax structure might generate are thinning fast.
Yesterday, as part of the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis’ quarterly presentation of state tax revenue forecasts, state economist Josh Lehner announced he’s leaving his post.
That announcement, amid continued good news for the state’s economy, follows the departure of Lehner’s former boss, Mark McMullen, who quietly left his position earlier this year.
Related: Oregon’s Top Economist to Depart Without Any Notice From the State
The state economists have come under fire in recent years because of their relationship to the state’s unique “kicker” law, which gives taxpayers a credit when tax revenues exceed the economists’ forecast by more than 2%. A stronger than expected economy has resulted in billions of dollars going back to taxpayers, rather than being spent on public services, as public employees and Democratic politicians would prefer. In the latest forecast, Lehner said the state is likely to return $987 million to taxpayers for the 2023-25 budget cycle.
Lehner excelled at explaining complex economic concepts in lay terms and often wrote about timely economic shifts on his office’s blog—as well as posting on social media about his affection for Oregon beer and his beloved Kansas City Chiefs, which preceded Taylor Swift’s infatuation with the team.
“When you’re born in Oklahoma and raised in rural Kansas, you don’t choose to be a Chiefs fan,” Lehner says. “It’s just who you are.”
Lehner was in line to replace McMullen atop the Office of Economic Analysis but says an enticing private-sector opportunity motivated him to leave state service. The Oregonian first reported his departure.
“I have accepted an offer from SGH Macro Advisors to join their team,” he says. “I knew it would take a really unique opportunity for me to leave the Office of Economic Analysis as I have loved every one of the 16 years I have been here. I am looking forward to continuing to do economic research but with a more national focus.”
At SGH Macro Advisors, Lehner will work alongside the firm’s chief economist, University of Oregon economics professor Tim Duy.