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Two years ago, Republicans all but washed out in the Portland suburbs after a blue wave solidified Democratic supermajorities in both chambers of the Oregon Legislature.
For years, Democrats sought supermajorities—defined as three-fifths of membership—to be able raise taxes without Republican support. The 2018 election had immediate consequences: Lawmakers in 2019 passed the Student Success Act, a new tax on businesses that, prior to COVID-19, Democrats expected to bring in $1 billion a year.
Their next benchmark for solidifying control over Salem? A two-thirds majority in each chamber, which would provide Democrats quorums in both the House and Senate, blocking the GOP tactic of walking out to derail bills.
There's reason to doubt whether Democrats can expand their 2018 gains in November, but they're also unlikely to lose the suburbs—not with President Donald Trump on the ballot.
Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping that Trump will help them turn out more conservative voters—at least compared with 2018—and that this time local issues will take precedence over national ones.
"I expect 2020 to be a much better election cycle than 2018 for Republicans in Oregon," says Trey Rosser, executive director of the Evergreen Oregon PAC, the House Republicans' political action committee, "due to the gross mismanagement by the Democrat supermajority on important issues facing Oregonians, such as the failure with unemployment insurance, forest management, raising billions in taxes, and allowing violence in Portland for over 100 straight days."
But Democrats have good reason to think Oregonians will have Trump on their minds as they fill in the bubbles on their ballots.
"I don't think we should underestimate people's disgust with our national government," says Felisa Hagins, political director for Service Employees International Union Local 49.
Predicting how people will vote is notoriously perilous. But party registration provides some clues. A look at the places in Oregon where the voter demographics have changed tells us a few things about what to expect on election night.
1. Republicans’ best hope of picking up a House district is along the south coast in District 9 where Democratic incumbent Rep. Caddy McKeown (D-Coos Bay) is retiring at the end of this year and Republicans now enjoy a 1 percentage point registration advantage. And Democrats’ best chance to pick up a seat is in House District 54, where they enjoy a 16-point registration advantage, even with a Republican incumbent in office. That partly explains the ferocity of the attack ads Rep. Cheri Helt (R-Bend), a moderate, is running against her Democratic challenger, prosecutor Jason Kropf. (Last week, WW reported that Helt has made an issue of accusations of sexual harassment in the Deschutes County District Attorney’s Office, where Kropf works. An Oregon Trial Lawyers Association staffer expanded the scandal by asking the victim to stay silent to benefit the Kropf campaign. The woman at the center of the uproar, Jasmyn Troncoso, told WW she’d vote for Helt if she still lived in the district.)
2. Ever since winning a supermajority in 2018, Democrats have been vexed by a Republican tactic of halting progressive bills by walking out of the Capitol to deprive the House of a quorum. But Democrats, who hold a 38-22 advantage in the House, have almost no chance of picking up the additional two seats they would need to create a quorum on their own unless there’s a blue tsunami. Outside of Bend, the hottest races are ones in which Democrats are defending seats, not trying to pick them up. One tough fight: House District 32, along the North Coast, where Rep. Tiffany Mitchell (D-Astoria) did not seek reelection. In District 52, covering Hood River and the western Columbia River Gorge, Democrats enjoy a slight registration advantage; Rep. Anna Williams (D-Hood River) is facing a rematch against former Rep. Jeff Helfrich (R-Hood River), the incumbent she defeated two years ago. But registration advantage isn’t everything: Democrats are not as aggressively contesting the seat of incumbent Rep. Ron Noble (R-McMinnville) in District 24, where Democrats have less than a percentage point advantage; he’s outspent his opponent, Lynnette Shaw, by more than 2 to 1. “We’re making sure voters know how extreme and out of step with the district he is,” says Hannah Love, executive director of FuturePAC. “He walked out on his constituents, he doesn’t think climate change is human-caused, and he thinks businesses should be able to discriminate against LGBTQ employees.” Democrats argue they shouldn’t have to win walkout-proof majorities. “This is a ridiculous bar,” says SEIU’s Hagins. “The Republicans have broken government that badly that Democrats have to win majorities or supermajorities and super-supermajorities to stop shutting down government. That’s absurd.”
3. In the more conservative Senate, where Democrats hold an 18 to 12 advantage the odds are still stacked against them, but Democrats have a better chance of snagging the two seats they need to over-ride a GOP walkout. There are two districts with a registration advantage favoring Democrats where Republicans are up for reelection, in Bend and in Salem. But incumbents still have an advantage. Meanwhile, Democrats are defending an open seat along the coast. All three districts have women running, which may or may not play well in swing districts. Democrats can hope women candidates will help draw the contrast with Republicans. “The three women running to represent the state Senate in Central Oregon, the coast and Salem all have a wealth of experience and are incredible candidates,” says Meghan Cavanaugh, executive director of the Senate Democratic Leadership Fund. “Now more than ever, voters in these districts are looking for a candidate who will stand up for a woman’s access to the full spectrum of reproductive health options.”