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Will the Trail Blazers trade their third overall pick in the NBA draft June 22? General manager Joe Cronin’s decision will shape the franchise’s future for the next decade.
The team’s superstar, Damian Lillard, has made two things clear in repeated public comments: (1) He prefers to stay in Portland, and (2) he wants the Blazers to push their chips in, trading for another star so they can contend now.
Any megatrade will likely involve sending out the third overall pick and guard Anfernee Simons. Which star Cronin gets back for that package is less clear.
Speculation has swirled around the franchise, and league, for weeks about who the Blazers will go after. With only hours remaining until the draft, the focus of that whirlwind has narrowed to New Orleans’ Zion Williamson and Miami’s Bam Adebayo.
Williamson, linked to the Blazers by multiple sources, represents an extreme high-risk, high-reward trade. At his best, he plays like a 21st century Charles Barkley—an NFL player’s build (6-foot-6, 284 pounds) crossed with startling athleticism, explosiveness and a punishing offensive skill set. Now the downside: The oft-injured power forward has appeared in only 114 regular season games in his first four seasons. For comparison, Greg Oden played 82 games in his first four seasons and Bill Walton played 209.
In an era of load management, the Blazers will be hoping that Williamson becomes their version of Kawhi Leonard. Frustrating extended absences during the regular season, but two championships to ease any simmering resentment.
Adebayo, linked to the Blazers by Yahoo’s Jake Fischer, would immediately become the best defender the franchise has had perhaps since Rasheed Wallace. His versatility and range would allow the team to lean toward a “switch-everything” defense that head coach Chauncey Billups flirted with last season. Acquiring a four-time All-Defense team honoree would represent a seismic shift for a team that hasn’t had a top-10 defense since 2018.
Unfortunately for Lillard, significant barriers remain for either trade. Williamson might not even be available by the time the Blazers are on the clock Thursday night. The Charlotte Hornets, owners of the second pick, have also been linked with the Pelicans. But Charlotte reportedly prefers Williamson’s teammate and fellow All-Star: Brandon Ingram. If the Pelicans would rather part with Ingram than Williamson, there is nothing Cronin can do.
The Heat are coming off a Cinderella Finals run, anchored by Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. It remains unclear why they would trade a 25-year-old multiyear All-Star. Indeed, multiple reports say the Heat are trying to acquire more star-level talent. The player they’re targeting? Damian Lillard. No reports have explained how the Blazers will convince Pat Riley to reverse course and send out a star instead. Either way, Lillard would not mind teaming up with Bam.
So what happens if The Trade falls through? Cronin will select either Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller—whichever player Charlotte doesn’t take. Both players are considered blue-chip prospects with All-Star upside. The kind of rookie any GM would be happy to select. They are also both very young, 19 and 20 years old, respectively, and may not reach their peak soon enough to mollify 32-year-old Lillard.
There is a scenario in which a youth-centric roster and Lillard’s careerlong durability create a championship ascent for the franchise. But only Lillard knows if that’s a timeline he’s ultimately willing to choose. Check back after the third pick Thursday night.
The Other Picks
Cronin and the Blazers also own the No. 23 pick in the first round. In some fun symmetry, the Blazers could take Leonard Miller—teammate with Henderson in the G League—or Noah Clowney—teammate of Brandon Miller at Alabama.
The Blazers may also decide to trade the pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers or Chicago Bulls.
Finally, Portland has the No. 43 selection in the second round. Picks in that range are the NBA’s equivalent of a scratch-off ticket. Feel free to get hyped about the new guy during Summer League; don’t be disappointed if he’s not in the rotation in October.