The Panicking Blazer Fan’s Guide to Drafting Scoot Henderson

The Trail Blazers drafted Scoot Henderson with the third pick in tonight’s NBA draft.

That decision was overshadowed, in the eyes of some, by what the Blazers didn’t do. They didn’t trade No. 3 for a star (possibly Zion Williamson?) to pair with Damian Lillard.

Let’s do some fan therapy: Drafting Henderson instead of trading the pick was the right decision.

Reality check: The Blazers are in the middle of a rebuild. They may not want to attach that label, but they won only 60 games across two seasons and had one of the youngest rosters in the league last year. Teams close to contention don’t trade solid role players (e.g., Josh Hart) for a late first-round draft pick to avoid salary obligation.

If they were going to trade Henderson, it had to be for an All-NBA first team-caliber player. Not “just” an All-Star. Given the state of the roster, anyone short of a top 10 player would not have had sufficient impact to help Dame contend for a title in the immediate future. And would not have been worth the risk of passing on Henderson’s All-NBA upside. Outside of Williamson, whose actual level of attainability will doubtless be reported in the coming days, none of the names floated in rumors fit that bill. A one-year rental of Pascal Siakam, a solid All-Star, just isn’t enough.

It is understandable if you feel betrayed. The franchise has failed to complete The Trade to help Lillard for years, despite constantly talking about it. That’s as frustrating as Oden instead of Durant at this point. But we can’t keep living in the shadow of Neil Olshey. Failure to trade CJ McCollum and three 2017 first-round draft picks for a star should not affect decision making in 2023. (The core of the 2017 team also went on to win 48 games after the draft. They were a lot closer to contending than this roster.)

Focusing on failures of the past also undervalues the bright future of the current roster. We’ve already talked about Shaedon Sharpe—he’s the real deal:

For his part, Henderson may be even more exciting. ESPN’s experts were quick to throw around comparisons to Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. Those are literal MVP winners. Henderson spent the past two years playing against legitimate NBA talent in the G League, bypassing the lesser competition of the NCAA. This is what he did to Victor Wembanyama when their teams played last year:

Henderson is not perfect. He has no 3-point shot to speak of. Very few 19-year-olds are instant successes in the NBA. But there is every reason to be extremely optimistic. In a vacuum, a decade of Scoot is more tantalizing than a few years of Siakam. Plus, he will be on a rookie-scale contract for four years, a financial benefit that no veteran can match.

The big picture is that the Blazers just added one of the very best prospects in this year’s draft. They are objectively better than they were yesterday. Let yourself be excited about that.

Now for the hard part. What does that mean for Lillard? ESPN’s Brian Windhorst expects other teams will be constructing trade packages to throw at general manager Joe Cronin immediately:

It’s unclear, however, if any team can put together the assets needed to pry Lillard away from the Blazers. It’s also unclear how Lillard feels now that the pick is actually in. He’s coming off the best year of his career, and Sharpe’s rapid development may have afforded the team a timeline where the tail end of Lillard’s prime overlaps with the beginning of Sharpe’s.

Could the Blazers compete with a 35-year-old Lillard and two young stalwarts on rookie contracts? Unclear. Can Henderson and Lillard, both ball-dominant guards, coexist at all? Unclear. Does Lillard’s affinity for the city and his teammates outweigh the uncertainty of chasing a title away from home? Unclear.

There’s a reason Lillard’s future in Portland is now in more doubt than it has been for years. A lot is unclear tonight. For the first time in a decade, the Blazers may be led by someone other than The Letter O. It’s OK to feel nervous about that. Even dread. But give yourself permission to be happy about Scoot, too.