What Should the Blazers Expect in Return for Damian Lillard?

Here’s the standard for a successful trade of a franchise icon.

Damian Lillard launches from Boulder as the Trail Blazers face the Denver Nuggets in first round of playoffs on May 24, 2021. Bruce Ely / Trail Blazers (Bruce Ely/Bruce Ely )
By Eric Griffith

The Damian Lillard trade request was a long time coming. The man himself has been frustrated for at least two years. Drafting Scoot Henderson, who plays the same position as Lillard, sealed the deal. There will be no Joe Montana/Steve Young practice-court rivalry in Portland. Dame is done as a Blazer.

Many of us are still working through the stages of grief. But as mourning gives way to acceptance, one question lingers: Can the Blazers be a winning team without Lillard? Ironically, to rebuild a post-Lillard roster, general manager Joe Cronin must deliver the one thing the team failed to offer Dame: an all-in trade befitting of a superstar.

If negotiated carefully, the haul the Blazers bring in for Lillard will be massive. All-NBA caliber players have garnered huge returns in trades in recent years. For Kevin Durant, the Nets received Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, four first-round picks, and a pick swap. For Rudy Gobert last year, the Jazz received two role players, draft rights to a first-round pick, four future first-round picks, and a future pick swap. For Donovan Mitchell last year, the Jazz received two young prospects (Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton), draft rights to a first-round pick, three future first-round picks, and two future pick swaps. For James Harden two years ago, the Rockets received Victor Oladipo, four first-round picks, and four pick swaps.

Gone are the days of Otis Thorpe and a first-round pick for your franchise’s hero.

Using those trades as precedent, the Blazers should expect to net at least one young player with significant upside and four future first-round draft picks for Lillard, as well as additional filler in the form of role players or pick swaps. That’s half a roster of role players or the means to acquire another star player down the road.

Don’t underestimate the stakes involved here. The Blazers have a promising core in Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons and the newly signed Jerami Grant. Getting sufficient return for Lillard could be enough to complete an on-the-fly rebuild before Henderson even signs his first contract extension. Success proves that Cronin’s decision to keep two consecutive lottery picks was a prudent, even shrewd, gamble. Failure confirms Lillard’s apparent suspicion that the organization would rather fold than push in its chips.

Now for the complicated part. Lillard is reportedly adamant that he only wants a trade to the Miami Heat. Miami’s appeal is obvious: They just made the finals and Lillard wants to play alongside Bam Adebayo, his 2021 Olympics teammate.

The Heat are willing to offer anyone on the roster, other than Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, but that does not necessarily translate to an appealing return for Blazers general manager Joe Cronin. Miami’s most obvious trade asset, Tyler Herro, plays guard—a position the Blazers already have covered (seemingly in perpetuity). The Heat already owe a future first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder, so they are not flush with draft capital.

It’s not hard to see why Cronin continues to look elsewhere for “maximum value.” Especially with multiple teams already lining up to get involved in a Lillard megatrade. Which is why the common sense assumption is that any Lillard trade involving the Heat will be a multiteam affair. That means Lillard to the Heat, Herro to a third team, a banana boat load of draft picks and young prospect(s) to the Blazers.

It’s also worth noting that Cronin has absolutely no obligation to honor Lillard’s request by negotiating exclusively with the Heat. The Cleveland Cavaliers were not on Mitchell’s list of preferred destinations. Lillard signed an extension with the Blazers last year, adding two years and roughly $122 million to his current contract. By locking in that money, he reduced his leverage to pick a preferred destination, either via free agency or by requesting a trade with fewer years left on his contract. Per the NBA’s CBA, any team that trades for Lillard will inherit the full length of his contract (three more seasons, plus a player option). Lillard’s only remaining option would be to refuse to report to a new team, opening a Pandora’s box of round-the-clock SportsCenter hot takes. That’s a scenario nobody wants, outside of Los Angeles.

If negotiations between Cronin and the Heat do break down, multiple other teams could likely complete a two-team megatrade. The Nets and Jazz both own a significant number of future picks and have appealing young players on their rosters. The Nets and Jazz are also both teams that Lillard has expressed interest in playing for previously.

Regardless of what uniform Lillard is wearing next season, the Blazers’ singular mission has not changed: Complete the franchise-defining trade that has been kicked down the road for years. Head into next season with a young prospect or two, and a half-decade of draft capital.

Ironically, Cronin and company are finally going to give Lillard what he wants. Let’s hope they don’t regret the gamble.

Double Dribbles

  • Anfernee Simons still plays for the Blazers. And he still plays the same position as Henderson and Sharpe. If the latter two turn into starting-caliber players, it likely won’t be viable to keep all three. There’s another big trade coming in the next couple years.
  • The Blazers retained Jerami Grant—five years, $160 million. Which means his contract will still be on the cap sheet when the Blazers are negotiating rookie extensions with Henderson and Sharpe. We’ll talk about the importance of aligning contract timelines on a future date.
  • The Blazers are trying to convince Edy Tavares, EuroLeague Final Four MVP, to leave his current club Real Madrid. Tavares, 7-foot-3, is a defensive specialist but is also entering the back half of his professional basketball career (31 years old). The Blazers need defense, but it’s unclear if Tavares fits their youth-centric roster.
  • Tavares will be filling a gap left by Trendon Watford (waived) and Drew Eubanks (signed with the Suns).
  • Mattise Thybulle has an offer from the Mavericks. The Blazers can choose to match the offer and keep him or let him leave for Dallas.

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